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COVID-19 Impact On 2020 China Export
In 2009, when the world economy was difficult, in terms of average purchasing power, world output fell by 0.1%, while total trade volume plummeted by 13%, and the quarterly transaction volume fell even more. But compared to 2009, the impact in 2020 will be even more brutal. In the epidemic, Chinese companies were hit by the first wave. In January and February 2020, the value of exports fell by 17% compared with the same period last year. In the world trading system, China's manufacturing industry contributes nearly 10% of global semi-finished products. China's manufacturing industry catches a cold, and global production is urgent.
Today, factories outside Europe, North America, and Asia not only have to deal with the instability of parts supply, but also the sickness of workers, as well as endless local and national shutdowns. The downstream trading companies are also facing great uncertainty. Orchard International, headquartered in Canada, is engaged in the international trade of products such as mascara and bath sponges. Employee Audrey Ross said that sales planning has turned into a nightmare: important customers in Germany have closed stores; business hours in American warehouses have been shortened. In their view, at first, it seemed to be a wise strategy to diversify business from China, but now there is no place in the world that is safe.
In order to deal with the impact of the epidemic, all countries have spared no effort to introduce a "economic protection" policy. Although this can offset the economic downturn to a certain extent, there is still a long way to go before being fully relieved from the epidemic. The McKinsey Institute estimates that in the second quarter of 2020, the US GDP may shrink at a rate of 25% -30%; the major economies in the euro area will also decline at a similar rate. The 2008-2009 financial crisis caused a 8.4% decline in US GDP. From this perspective, the economic impact of the epidemic will far exceed any economic recession since the Second World War.